Final 5 Match-Ups (by Donn)

This is it, the last WCHA Final 5 as we have known it for decades.  Three out of last weekend’s first round series went to three games, which is not too surprising, given the depth and talent of the conference as a whole.  I’m looking forward to this long weekend of hockey and hopefully will take a lot of good memories from it. Most of the teams that are not going to St. Paul are done for the year, with the exception of DU.  The Pioneers could get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament; they are currently sitting at #13 in the pairwise.

WCHA FINAL STANDINGS 2012-2013

Team………………………W-L-T………Points

1. St. Cloud St……………18-9-1.……….37
2. Minnesota……………...16-7-2……..…37
3. North Dakota.………….14-7-7………..35
4. Denver…………..……..14-9-5..….......33
5. Wisconsin…....………..13-8-7………...33
6. Minnesota State………16-11-1....…….33
7. Nebraska-Omaha…......14-12-2…....…30
8. Colorado College …….11-13-4..….….26
9. Minnesota-Duluth….….10-13-5……….25
10. Michigan Tech………..8-16-4…..…..20
11. Bemidji State……..…..6-15-7......…..17
12. Alaska-Anchorage…....2-20-6.....…..10

The # numbers below are now the PAIRWISE rankings.

Thursday Games

Colorado College @ #6 North Dakota

Last weekend NoDak ended MTU’s season in three games (5-3W, 2-1L, 6-0W) in Grand Forks and the Tigers beat their archrival Pioneers in three games (5-3L, 2-1W, 4-3W) in Denver.

2012-13 series – Tied wins 2-2-0

The first series was in Colorado Springs Nov30/Dec1 with the Tigers winning the first game (5-3) and UND winning the second in overtime (3-2).  They met for the second series in Grand Forks in mid-January with the Tigers again winning the opening game (4-3) and UND winning the finale (5-3).

UND has a chance to be the first four-peat champion this weekend and it starts with a stiff test in CC.  The Tigers have the offensive power to compete with anyone in the league; the big question is their defense and goaltending.  The same could be said about UND, they too have has some blips in their own zone too.  Both have a short week after playing three games (Fri/Sat/Sun) and then a short rest and travel before this Thursday night game.  The Tigers need to keep winning to extend their season, UND could lose and still make the NCAA tournament.  I’m going with UND in this game, since they have been getting more consistent play in the net.  NODAK WINS

(I also want them to win so we all get to see another UND/UM game.)

#9 Minnesota State @ #16 Wisconsin

Last weekend the Mavericks took out the UNO Mavericks in three games (4-3Wot, 2-1L, 3-1W) in Mankato and the Badgers ended the UMD Bulldogs season by sweeping them (3-1, 4-1) in Madison.

2012-13 series – Tied 2-2-0

The first series was in Madison on Nov23/24 with the Mavericks sweeping the series (4-2, 4-2).  They met for the second series in Mankato in mid-January with the Badgers returning the favor in dramatic fashion, by sweeping the Mavericks in overtime in both games (4-3ot, 2-1ot).

The Badgers have clawed their way back in the NCAA tournament picture, now they are firmly on the bubble with their #16 rank.  The Mavericks would be in the NCAA tournament if it started this weekend, but if get some wins this weekend they can move up the rankings and improve their seeding. 

This game I’m not sure about who is going to win, I don’t have a feeling right away for one team or the other.  Both are playing well and need/want to advance to Friday’s game against SCSU.  Even with UW being the “home” team in this game, I’m going to go with the “visitors” for the win, in overtime.  MAVERICKS WIN

Friday Games

#12 St. Could St.

Last weekend the Huskies swept the Seawolves (6-1, 5-1) in St. Cloud.

Season Series
vs MSUM – SCSU wins 2-0-0
vs UW – Tied 1-1-0

Since the Huskies are the top seed they will “host” the winner from Thursday’s MSUM/UW play-in game.

If my prediction from Thursday hold true, the Huskies will be facing in-state foe Mankato for the right to advance to the championship game.  SCSU had to settle for “sharing” the MacNaughton Cup and now will want the Broadmoor Trophy all to themselves.  The Huskies have not captured the playoff title since 2001 and the Mavericks have never hoisted either piece of hardware.  HUSKIES WIN

#2 Minnesota

Last weekend the Gophers swept the Beavers (2-1ot, 4-3) in Minneapolis.

Since the Gophers are the second seed they will “host” the winner of the CC/UND from Thursday’s play-in game.

Season Series

vs UND – UM wins 1-0-1
vs CC – UM wins 1-0-1

Again, if my Thursday predictions hold true, the Gophers will face long, long, time rival UND in the evening tilt at the Xcel Center.  Last year these team clashed in a semi-final game, remember… the Gophers staked themselves to a 3-0 lead, UND called a time out, and then rattled off 6 unanswered goals for a 6-3 win.  (Then UM and UND met a week later again at the Xcel Center in the NCAA tournament with the UM winning.)  I don’t think we will get that kind of game this time around, but who knows, that’s why they play the games.  I’m inclined this time around to give the nod to the Gophers in this game, to set-up a rubber match with the Huskies.  GOPHERS WIN

Saturday - CHAMPIONSHIP Game

Well this as far as I’m allowed to stretch my predictions.  We’ll know by the end of Friday if I’m even close to correct.  But if I am, it’s a SCSU/UM game for the Broadmoor trophy, a title that cannot be shared, and the auto-bid for the NCAA tournament.  I’m thinking the Gophers might be spent emotionally if they beat UND the evening before.  The Gophers are a pretty solid lock on a number one seed, whereas the Huskies could use another quality win to solidify their spot in the tourney.  HUSKIES WIN

Related articles

• WCHA Power Rankings: Week 22 (thehockeywriters.com)

Weekend Match-Ups (by Donn)

Western Collegiate Hockey Association logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think it is time to do a top ten list, since I haven’t done with this season, so here it goes.

10 – Number of league games most teams have left
9 – Teams that realistically have a chance at home ice
8 – Games BSU has gone without a win currently
7 – Weeks left in the regular WCHA season
6 – WCHA Teams in the USA Today College Hockey Poll
5 – Number of tie games both UND and UW have
4 – Home games left for MSUM
3 – Periods per hockey game
2 – Outdoor games for the WCHA this season
       (UND/UNO, Feb-9 & UM/UW, Feb-17)
1 – Where SCSU sets to start February

WCHA STANDINGS 2012-2013

Team………………………W-L-T………Points

1. St. Cloud St……………12-6-0…….….25
2. Minnesota……………...10-4-4……..…24
2. Nebraska-Omaha…......11-5-2…....….24
4. Minnesota State……….10-9-1.…...….21
4. North Dakota.………..…8-5-5…….…..21
4. Wisconsin…....…………8-5-5………...21
7. Denver…………..……...8-6-4…….......20
8. Minnesota-Duluth….…..8-7-3…………19
9. Colorado College ……..7-10-1..…..….15
10. Bemidji State……..…..4-10-4......……12
11. Michigan Tech………..4-10-4…..……12
12. Alaska-Anchorage…....1-15-4…...……5

WCHA Games

#12 St. Could St.  @ Bemidji St.

Last weekend the Huskies took three points from NoDak (3-1, 2-2ot) in Grand Forks and the Beavers were swept by the UNO Mavericks (5-3, 2-1) in Bemidji.

The Huskies are on a four game unbeaten streak (3-0-1) entering this weekend and the Beavers on a eight game winless streak (0-6-2).  SCSU can put the on official notice that they are in the driver’s seat for the McNaughton Cup with a sweep of the Beavers this weekend.  However, BSU would like nothing better than to play the spoiler to one of their in-state rivals.  The Beavers need to get some timely scoring and stay out of the box, if they want a chance to beat SCSU.  But in the end, the Huskies will leave Bemidji with the points.  HUSKIES SWEEP

Colorado College @ Alaska-Anchorage

Last weekend the Tigers were on a bye and the Seawolves were swept by the Badgers (5-2, 2-1) in Madison.

The Tigers need to get a sweep this weekend if they want to have any chance of getting into the top half of the standings before the regular season ends.  The Seawolves appear to already be mathematically eliminated from home ice, sorry UAA.  The Tigers are 4-8-0 this year away from Colorado Springs, and the Seawolves are 2-7-3 at home in Sullivan Arena.  The Tigers might be a rusty after a weekend off, so look for the Seawolves to come out guns a blazing and try to put CC away early.  The Tigers have the firepower to put up goals, however they are giving up the lion’s share of goals too.  SPLIT

#10 Denver @ Minnesota-Duluth

Last weekend the Pioneers were on a bye and the Bulldogs beat the US U-18 team (3-1) in Duluth.

The Pioneers are on a three game winless streak now, and have been streaking all year, going on two 4 game win streaks, a 5 game win streak, and an 8 game winless streak.  DU has not won a road game since Nov-16 at Colorado Springs.  The Bulldogs have been playing five hundred hockey all season, winning some, losing some.  But looking a little deeper, the wins are against teams lower than them and the losses are against the teams above them.  This is a tough series to predict give the ups and downs of DU and UMD struggles against good teams.  SPLIT

#19 Wisconsin @ #7 North Dakota
Last weekend the Badgers swept the Seawolves (5-2, 2-1) in Madison and NoDak got a point from the SCSU Huskies (3-1, 2-2ot) in Grand Forks.

The Badgers have 1 loss in their last 14 games, going 10-1-3, since Nov-30.  However, in that stretch they have 4 wins versus UAA, 2 wins over Huntsville, and tied MTU twice, so it hasn’t been the toughest competition.  Meanwhile, NoDak is winless in their last four games, going 0-2-2 against UM and SCSU.  If UND wants to keep in the hunt for the last WCHA title as we know it they need wins this weekend.  If NoDak can get the ship righted and some timely saves, they can take the points they need to have.  The Badgers should be confident heading into this weekend give their current winning ways, but their confidence or over-confidence could be their undoing in Grand Forks. 

NORTH DAKOTA SWEEP

Michigan Tech @ #14 Nebraska-Omaha

Last weekend the Huskies were on a bye and the Mavericks swept the Beavers (5-3, 2-1) in Bemidji.

These teams met back in November, with the Mavericks sweeping the Huskies in Houghton by scores of 2-1 and 5-3.  UNO has gone 4-1-1 in their past six league games, and MTU is 3-2-1 over that same span.  The Huskies have just two wins on the road in WCHA play this year and those came at the expense of BSU.  The Mavericks are 8-3-1 at home this season and haven’t lost at home since Dec-14 to the other Mavericks.  The numbers point to the Mavericks which is what I’m looking at to predict this series. 

MAVERICKS SWEEP

BYE WEEK

#1 Minnesota
#15 Minnesota State